Israeli Airstrike on Iran
On the night of 26 October, approximately 100 aircraft of the Israeli Air Force, including a squadron of F-35 fighter jets, fired missiles at various targets in Iran, 2,000 kilometres away. The attack reportedly targeted Iran’s Parchin missile production complex, as well as early warning radar systems and S-300 air defence systems. As a result of the attack, explosions occurred in Tehran, Khuzestan and other regions, while four soldiers of the Iranian air defence and a security officer working at the missile production complexes were reportedly killed.
Satellite images showed some material damage to missile production facilities in Iran. The US media claimed that it would take at least two years for Iran to recover its missile parts and fuel production after the attack and that it would need to spend about 40 million dollars. The Iranian government, however, rejected these claims, stating that the material damage was not significant and that Iran’s missile production capabilities had not been disrupted.
Israel announced that the airstrike was in response to Iran’s 1 October attack with 180 ballistic missiles. In this context, we discussed with journalist and author Musa Özuğurlu the possible consequences of an attack on Iran, the likelihood of an Iranian response, the situation of the Gulf states close to the conflict, and the allegations in the world press that Iran is developing nuclear weapons.
Impacts of Israel’s Air Strike
Musa Özuğurlu reminded that both sides have made statements in their own favour regarding the effects of Israel’s airstrike on Iran and emphasised that all information should be carefully examined. Özuğurlu stated that Israel may have wanted to target Iran’s air defence systems with the attack to send a message of “don’t leave Iran naked”. However, he stated that there are no clear signs that Iran’s strategic goals have been seriously damaged:
- “We should not forget that we are talking about the Middle East. Anything can happen at any time. There were reports that there were negotiations between Washington and Tel Aviv on how Israel would strike Iran, what kind of attack it would carry out or how hard it would hit Iranian targets.”
- “Both sides overestimate each other’s losses and underestimate their own. Iran’s statement that the strikes had ‘no effect whatsoever’ should also be taken into account.”
- “I do not believe that Israel has caused major damage to Iran’s defence systems or damaged Iran’s strategic points.”
Iran’s Possibility of Developing Nuclear Weapons
Özuğurlu noted that there is much speculation about Iran’s nuclear weapons development and reminded that acquiring a nuclear weapon requires technologies far beyond enriched uranium. Stating that recent developments show that Iranian decision-makers are more favourable to acquiring nuclear weapons, Özuğurlu emphasised that Iran’s possible response to Israel is highly unlikely to include a nuclear option:
- “One has to question whether Iran currently has nuclear weapons. There is a lot of speculation on this issue.”
- “Iran seems to have abandoned the principle that nuclear weapons are forbidden after the recent attacks.”
- “After the attack, the US said, ‘We are fully prepared to defend Israel. If Iran attacks, there will be consequences,’ he said.”
Situation in the Gulf States
Özuğurlu stated that the Gulf Arab states were relieved that Iran’s oil fields and refineries were not hit. Stating that Arab countries are making efforts to prevent a major attack, Özuğurlu emphasised that a conflict between Iran and the Gulf could block the Strait of Hormuz and this could paralyse the global energy supply:
- “If we look at the Arab press, there seems to be a relaxation in the Gulf.”
- “The Gulf states probably made an effort to ensure that the Israeli attack would not require a response.”
- “The Gulf states do not want Iran not because they like it too much, but because of their own interests.”
Impact of Developments in the Region
Musa Özuğurlu evaluated that the developments in the region with the election of Naim Kasım as the new leader of Hezbollah could also be effective in the Iran-Israel crisis:
- “Iran’s response can be expected. Iran may not necessarily launch missiles, but it is necessary to wait.”
- “We are not only talking about a crisis between Israel and Iran. There is a situation with many components.”
