Donald Trump’s New Term Appointments and Middle East Policies
Donald Trump, who came to the fore with a 312-delegate victory in the presidential elections, started to announce his preferences for the appointments he will make on the day he will take office on 20 January. Trump, who nominated Florida’s Republican Senator Marco Rubio for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, announced that he preferred former soldier and Fox News host Pete Hegseth for the Ministry of Defence. It was also informed that Elon Musk, the owner of Tesla and SpaceX, will be put in charge of the “Government Efficiency Department” responsible for savings and budget management.
Another remarkable appointment was the appointment of Matt Gaetz, a member of the House of Representatives from Florida, as Attorney General. Gaetz is a firm supporter of Trump, as well as standing by him in lawsuits against Trump. Michael Waltz, whom Trump is considering as his National Security Advisor, is known as a “hawk” against Iran. It was also reported that Tulsi Gabbard, who switched from Democrats to Republicans and supported Trump, will join his team as Director of National Intelligence.
Trump’s Foreign Policy Strategies
The team of Donald Trump, who won the US elections, evaluated the appointments he plans to make, his possible policies in the Middle East, Trump’s possible effects on Syria and Turkey’s Syria policy, and the Palestinian issue with Dr Gökhan Çınkara from Necmettin Erbakan University.
‘Trump has established a balance within the Republican Party’
Prof. Dr. Gökhan Çınkara stated that Trump established a balance within the Republican Party with the team and cabinet members he appointed in his new presidential term. Çınkara stated that Trump turned to suitable names to take the reins in his hands. According to him, Trump will carry out a multi-dimensional diplomacy in foreign policy by assigning each file to a different official:
- “Trump has paved the way for the factions within the Republican Party, with whom he had allied during the election process. According to the American press, Trump’s team is divided into two groups: isolationists and neocons. This is the main factor behind Rubio’s appointment as secretary of state.”
- “Trump is a dominant character. The majority leader in the Senate will probably be the person he favours. There are also many members of the House of Representatives who support Trump.”
- “The US has entered an interesting period. It’s being described as a triple victory. The executive will be in their hands and both wings of the legislature will be under their control.”
Change and New Policies in the Middle East
‘Relations with Russia will be decisive’
Prof. Dr. Çınkara emphasised that although Trump’s Middle East relations will be conducted through certain figures, the biggest determining factor will be the talks with Russia:
- “Trump had a plan for a joint agreement between the Saudis and Israel. He will put a lot of effort into finalising them.”
- “Saudi Arabia’s main demand is the creation of a Palestinian state. Trump had a meeting with Mahmoud Abbas. But the groups with which Trump is allied emphasise the annexation of the West Bank.”
- “An agreement between Russia and the US could lead to the emergence of new policies in the Middle East.”
Strategies on Iran and Palestine
‘Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Should Be Removed from the Agenda’
Stating that support for Israel and the “removal of Iran’s nuclear facilities from the agenda” may come to the fore in Donald Trump’s Middle East policy in his new term, Dr Gökhan Çınkara stated that the course of developments in the Middle East will be determined by the negotiations between the US and Russia:
- “Between 2016 and 2020, Trump pursued a tough policy on hostages abroad. If Hamas does not change its policy, I think Trump will adopt a tough stance.”
- “As for Lebanon, Trump’s son-in-law is Lebanese. Through him, he may look for ways to develop a new understanding on Hezbollah and Iran.”
- “The Trump team emphasises that the Iranian nuclear facilities must be completely off the agenda. This would greatly weaken Iran’s deterrent power.”
Hamas and Palestinian Politics
‘Hamas’ position as an actor is weakening’
Prof. Dr. Çınkara noted that Hamas may lose its actor position due to the situation on the ground and that the Trump team has created a negative picture for Palestine due to the “annexation of the West Bank” discourse:
- “I think Hamas doesn’t have much chance anymore. The most reasonable thing they can do is to enter into dialogue with Fatah in Palestinian politics.”
- “The leadership is disorganised. It is obvious that not much can be expected from Hamas.”
- “With the annexation of the West Bank on the agenda, what can be discussed with Hamas?”
Relations with Turkey and New Opportunities
‘There are no names in Trump’s team that favour Turkey’
Dr Çınkara noted that there are not many names in Trump’s team who are warm to Turkey and that Turkey will try to create opportunities through the Syrian issue:
- “There is an institutional dialogue between Biden and Erdoğan. However, Biden did not meet with Erdoğan at the White House, nor did he come to Turkey.”
- “The Elon Musk incident is important in terms of creating new opportunities through personal relationships.”
- “It is difficult to find a profile sympathetic to Turkey in the Trump team. However, it is certain that a new window of opportunity has opened.”
The Importance of the Russian Factor
‘Russia Factor is Being Ignored in the Middle East’
Çınkara emphasised that the Russian factor in the Middle East is often overlooked in analyses and stated that it is too early to make a clear comment on Trump’s plan to withdraw from Syria:
- “It is difficult for Trump to say with certainty that he may withdraw from Syria. The addition of Waltz to the team prevents me from making a clear comment on withdrawal from Syria.”
- “Russia’s presence in Syria has shifted many equations in different directions. Without Russia, perhaps a regional war would have broken out.”
Possible Agreements with Assad
‘Maybe Assad can also make a deal with Trump’
Prof. Dr. Gökhan Çınkara stated that Bashar al-Assad may breathe and seek ways of reconciliation during the Trump era:
- “There seems to be no harmony between the statements of President Erdoğan and Yaşar Güler.”
- “Assad attended the Arab Summit and his speech does not cause any discomfort for the Gulf Arab countries.”
- “Maybe he can make a deal with Trump. It is rumoured that there may be negotiations between Assad and the US and Russia.”
